World Cup Group Stage Tiebreaker Odds - 2531

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The World Cup is now in group stage. Each group has four teams. The top two teams advance to the knockout stage. This video explains the 7 tiebreaker steps, and uses Microsoft Excel to analyze the 729 permutations that can happen in any one group. How likely is it that the tiebreaker will need to be used?

Table of Contents

(0:00) World Cup Group Stage Scoring
(1:00) Tiebreaker rules
(1:50) Odds of a tiebreaker
(2:20) Excel Model for one group
(2:50) TEXTSPLIT function
(3:22) Excel Trace Dependents
(3:45) Scoring & Sorting
(4:10) Detecting a Tie
(4:41) Why 729 permutations
(4:53) 28% tiebreaker chance
(5:46) Six draws leads to 12 points
(6:04) 18 points total
(6:40) Which results have a tie?
(7:28) Excel behind the scenes
(8:00) 7 answers from 6 inputs
(9:19) Contemplated VBA
(9:39) Multiple input cells to Excel data table
(10:49) Generating 729 input cells
(12:44) Setting up the Data Table
(14:51) Paste results as values