The Science of Prediction

Two of the country's most agile prognosticators—Nate Silver and Mark Penn— discuss the science behind their art, with insights to the changing nature of American society, moderated by Ronald Brownstein. Underwritten by Shell. See more from the Aspen Ideas Festival: www.aspenideas.org Nate Silver is a columnist and statistician. He runs the award-winning political website FiveThirtyEight.com, where he publishes a running forecast of current elections and hot-button issues. Mark Penn is the corporate vice president for Strategic and Special Projects at Microsoft Corporation,where he leads a multidisciplinary team aimed at solving high-value business issues. Ronald Brownstein is political director for Atlantic Media Company, where he coordinates overall political coverage at its publications, which include The Atlantic, National Journal, Hotline, and Congress Daily; and also editorial director for National Journal Group.